More predictions

The unpredictability arises from a strong non-linearity in the trapping ability of the cusp. Small misalignment of cusp & no CDC is formed.
Note that high Vsw usually means high DVsw, and simultaneously, higher seed energies for 2nd order Fermi acceleration. Thus a synergistic correlation.
Magnetic clouds are also geoeffective, but with very different properties than high speed streams (Jan 97)
CDC probably “evaporate” releasing lowest energy last, mimicking Time-Energy Dispersions.

The unpredictability arises from a strong non-linearity in the trapping ability of the cusp. Small misalignment of cusp & no CDC is formed.