Prediction Models

Koons & Gorney 91, used Kp. Works great on small changes, lousy on big storms.
Reeves 98 showed Dst “storms” were 100% simultaneous with MeV enhancements in 95. But the magnitudes & timing of both had no correlation.
Both above indicators were 24 hour averages, both had +/- 24 hr error on estimated start time. All we can really say is that disturbed magnetosphere conditions produce both MeV electrons and ring current and/or ionospheric currents. It’s hardly a prediction, at this point, it’s a coincidence.

Koons & Gorney 91, used Kp. Works great on small changes, lousy on big storms.