Model Predictions

• MeV electrons are born in CDCs

• Not solar wind Vsw but Vsw drives MeV e

• Conditions amenable to driving plasma in the cusp are the predictors for MeV e events:

  • Cusp tilted toward the Sun. Solstices over equinox.
  • High momentum solar wind.
  • Bz northward during impact. Turbulence afterward.

• The longer the CDC lasts, the higher the “knee”, and the harder the spectrum

• MeV-Dst correlations are also due to Vsw